The two-week ceasefire in Iran is expiring this Wednesday. Yet, we don't have a deal in sight.

However, Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz after a ceasefire was reached in Lebanon. Trump issued a statement saying, “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED.” Well, my analysis that Iran won’t leave Hezbollah was true. That being said, Israel has not withdrawn from the areas they control in Southern Lebanon, and I believe it will use Gaza as a model in Lebanon. The 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced on April 16. Israel’s war in Lebanon killed over 1,400 people and displaced more than a million before the pause.

After the reopening, oil prices dropped 10%. But that did not go on for long. Just hours after its reopening, Iran closed it again when the U.S. refused to lift its naval blockade. Oil is now near $100 a barrel.

The next few weeks will be crucial as negotiations continue, Israel might continue the attacks in Lebanon if the temporary ceasefire is not expanded. So, we are not yet done.

The IMF this week cut global growth to 2.4% and raised inflation projections to 4.4%, citing the Iran war as the primary shock. Energy commodity prices are projected up 19% for the year. The Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and Western Europe face the steepest downturns. The consequences are global, so the world might need to use more political capital to pressure Israel into a permanent ceasefire.

In Gaza, six months after the ceasefire was announced, 773 Palestinians have been killed. Israel still controls over half of Gaza’s territory. Reconstruction has not begun. And Israel is drawing up plans for a new offensive, especially after the recent failure to reach an agreement on Hamas’s disarmament. At the end, Palestinians in Gaza continue to pay a heavy price every single day.

Another week. A ceasefire expires on Wednesday. A region on hold, waiting to see whether Trump wants a deal and can overcome Israel’s pressure or not.

A temporary ceasefire was reached last week. But since then, we have received several signs that it might just be that: temporary.

While U.S. Vice President Vance was making a speech announcing that a marathon of negotiations with Iran had failed to produce an agreement, the U.S. president was spending his time in the best possible way: watching a UFC fight.

Vance suggested that after 21 hours of meetings, the U.S. offered its best deal to Iran, but Iran refused it. This was anticipated because several issues remain unresolved. First, Iran has not agreed to fully and immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It wants to create a system that allows it to charge vessels entering the Strait.

The United States, of course, refused. What is interesting is that in a recent conversation with a friend, he explained how the Strait is not technically closed. He argued that Iran does not have the capacity to stop the ships passing through it, and if they were going to stop or attack one, it would be one out of hundreds. However, insurance companies have made their premiums so high that no one is willing to pay. Obviously, some of these ships also simply do not want to take the risk of being that “one” ship.

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Another disagreement: Trump demands that Iran hand over its entire stockpile of enriched uranium. Iran refused. Finally, Iran also wanted to include Lebanon in the ceasefire — as I argued in last week’s piece — but the U.S. refused, treating it as an Israeli security matter. I expect more negotiations to follow, but that depends on the United States’ willingness to decouple its demands from Israel’s. This is especially important since Benjamin Netanyahu has not gained enough politically to sway the upcoming elections in a few months, and has been telling the Israeli public that “the battle is not yet over.” We will have to wait and see.

In Palestine, Israel continued to target and bomb Gaza. Just a few days ago, it targeted Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Gaza, Mohammed Wishah. Israel is also continuing to target Palestinian Christians, including during Holy Saturday in Jerusalem, when restrictions and checkpoints blocked many from reaching the church or the celebrations.

In Lebanon, the government announced a national day of mourning after Israel killed at least 254 people and injured 1,165 in a single day. A single day. 254 souls killed in a single day. As negotiations with Iran continue, I believe Israel will use this time to seize more control over southern Lebanon — the next few weeks may be the worst yet for Lebanon.

Another week: a ceasefire in one place that is broken every day, another that is temporary, and a third that the whole world wants — except Israel.

Another week, and another ultimatum by Trump for Iran. Yesterday, Trump threatened that he will bomb public infrastructure in Iran on Tuesday if they do not open the Strait of Hormuz. It is crazy how a U.S. president is publicly declaring his intent to break international law (not that others did not do it). But I doubt such a threat is going to be effective in pressuring Iran to stop the closure, given that Trump issued 5 ultimatums between March 21 and April 4. Most of these ultimatums were ultimately postponed. However, such threats should still be taken seriously, especially since there is a clear call to break international law.

Despite the threats, there seems some progress towards a ceasefire as many are reporting that a possible temporary ceasefire might be reached soon. The temporary ceasefire would include an Immediate ceasefire; the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened and a 15–20 days period to allow time for a broader agreement to be reached. Talks and discussions will be held in Pakistan.

While the world is watching the war in Iran and feeling its consequences, Israel has passed a death penalty law ONLY FOR PALESTINIANS. This is such a racist law that even Apartheid South Africa did not do this. Read that again: Israel passed a law to use the death penalty, which is being abandoned by most countries, to execute only one ethnic group: Palestinians. For those questioning Israel’s genocidal intent and apartheid, here you go.

For those who do not know enough about the law: The law applies to Palestinians tried in Israeli military courts, which handle virtually all West Bank Palestinian cases, with a conviction rate of around 96%. Yes, 96%. And for a third time: YES, 96% conviction rate. It only applies to Palestinians because Jewish Israelis are tried in civilian courts and are entirely exempt from this law, even if convicted of killing Palestinians.

To further showcase their goal of killing Palestinians, the execution is to be carried out within 90 days of sentencing, providing NO mechanism for clemency (in direct contradiction of international human rights conventions, which is no surprise).

While almost everyone condemned the law (which is useless), the Trump administration stated that they “respect Israel’s sovereign right to determine its own laws.” What a joke.

If you leave this newsletter with one thing, it should be this: the Israeli parliament passed a law that allows the execution of ONLY one group (Palestinians) within 90 days of the sentence. This group has a 96% conviction rate. Feel free to mention this to any Zionist who argues that raising Palestinian flags makes them feel unsafe.

Among Jewish Israeli members of the Knesset (parliament), roughly 62 voted in favor and 38 voted against. This means about 62% support Vs. 38% opposition. This is almost a two-thirds majority, not a 51% majority. Worth mentioning in that argument, too.

Gaza, as always, is the heart of Palestine. Despite rising prices because of Israel’s closure of borders, destruction, and desperation, they took to the streets across Gaza to protest the Knesset’s passage of the law. Similar protests took place across the West Bank.

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Talking about the West Bank, Israeli settlers are again terrorizing Palestinians across different areas there. It has increased by so much. Israel is allowing a bunch of thugs, criminals, and terrorists to attack Palestinian farms, stores, and homes. Last week, even CNN was assaulted. Israeli soldiers detained and assaulted a CNN crew in the village of Tayasir, which was attacked even after the CNN coverage of the settlers’ crimes. Here are some videos of such attacks by the settlers: one, two, and three.

In Gaza, Israel continues to kill Palestinians across the Strip. Just minutes before finishing this newsletter, Israel attacked a WHO vehicle in Gaza, killing the driver and injuring others. Since the ceasefire in early October, Israel has killed more than 732 Palestinians in Gaza. In addition, Israel is expanding its destruction of the strip by bombing any home that is still standing in the areas they control (illegally).

I came across this photo today on X that shows the massive number of tents in Gaza. 75 years after being ethnically cleansed, Palestinians are again living in tents because of Israel.

Despite all of this, Palestinian Christians gathered at the Holy Family Church in Gaza to observe Good Friday. I studied at this complex for more than 2 years, so I know this church and its people very well. So it is truly emotional seeing such scenes.

Talking about Easter, Israeli police physically blocked Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulchre to celebrate Mass — the first time in centuries. For more on how Israel treats Palestinian Christians, I highly recommend Palestinian pastor Munther Isaac’s podcast episode here with Tucker Carlson (yes, Tucker Carlson, who has also been very much anti-Trump these past weeks because of the war with Iran).

Let’s hope next week holds better news for the world and those in the Middle East.

Israel is still bombing Gaza, Iran, and Lebanon. Israel is blockading Gaza, the West Bank, and Southern Lebanon. Israel is annexing half of Gaza, much of the West Bank, Southern Lebanon, and parts of Syria. Israel dragged the U.S. into an illegal war, with no end in sight. Just this month, Israel tortured a one-year-old baby in Gaza (YES, READ THE ARTICLE), massacred children in Iran, proudly announced its killing of two journalists in Lebanon, and allowed its terrorist settlers in the West Bank to attack more and more Palestinians.

Why start with this? Because it’s always important to trace the root cause of any problem. Many, and I mean many, of the problems in the Middle East are caused by Israel. So keep that in mind while reading this newsletter and any other article.

This past week, we haven’t seen any sign that this war is slowing down. On the contrary, many are reporting that the U.S. is going to start ground operations against Iran to help open the Strait of Hormuz. This is massive. Why? Not only because this would certainly mean taking the war to another level, but it also means the U.S. is deploying ground troops while Israel, which started this war, isn’t. Unlike Americans who do not support this war, 92.5% of Israeli Jews support it. Why would they not? Israel gets to destroy, kill, and injure whoever, whenever, wherever, without facing any accountability or even pushback. And yes, for those arguing that this is only Benjamin Netanyahu’s genocidal government, they are wrong. Almost 70% of Israel’s so-called “left” supports this war. Let that sink in. For more on this, read this piece by Gideon Levy, an Israeli journalist and author, on the collapse of public discourse in wartime Israel.

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The war also saw the Houthis in Yemen enter the war with their first missile strike on Israel. While such strikes are mostly symbolic, the Houthis could certainly disrupt movement in the Red Sea. This could mean a rise in oil and gas prices.

While American and Israeli strikes continued across Iran, Iran’s strikes also have not stopped despite attempts to eliminate Iran’s missile program and missile launchers. Just yesterday, the UAE said its air defenses engaged with 16 Iranian ballistic missiles and 42 drones.

In Gaza, Israel is still killing people. Since the ceasefire was declared in October 2025, Israel has killed 692 Palestinians across the Strip. The borders are still partially open, with a limited number of people entering and leaving.

In Lebanon, Israel’s genocidal military announced the killing of a journalist, accusing him of being a member of Hezbollah. Then they released a photo of the killed journalist in military garb. “Unfortunately there isn’t really a picture of it; it was photoshopped,” the IDF told Fox News about the source of the photo. Go figure. Israel’s tactics continue.

The consequences of this war are still hitting the world. In Egypt, the government announced measures to stop most activities after 9 pm, basically shutting off lights and electricity in shopping malls, public streets, and cafes. For those who don’t know Egypt: This country literally starts operating at 6 pm. So such a measure had major backlash on social media. See the photo below of Cairo’s downtown, a city of 20 million people. Unbelievable.

In addition to Egypt, Iraq’s economy has also taken a hit with the country’s oil exports falling from 3.4 million barrels per day to around 250,000. It’s also worth noting that several Shia militias in Iraq have been launching missiles and drones toward American targets in the country, further destabilizing it.

Today, I saw this video of a child in Gaza. Just complete sadness and anger. This is what we should be talking about - not a bunch of privileged white zionist kids who are “afraid” of Palestinian flags in American universities.

Here is another video from the West Bank as well.

While many suspected Trump would end this war earlier, it’s only getting bigger by the minute. Here’s what happened last week:

Yesterday, Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, warning them to either open Hormuz or the US would “obliterate” its power plants. With over 3,000 vessels stranded in the Middle East, according to the International Maritime Organization, this is another attempt by the Trump Admin to bring down oil prices that have passed $100 per barrel. Some airlines are preparing for a much higher number.

The irony? The Trump admin waived sanctions on the purchase of Iranian oil at sea (to help decrease the prices they created). The ultimatum Trump issued came only hours after he suggested the U.S. was about to end its military operations.

Now, will this ultimatum work? I doubt it.

If the U.S. and Israel go ahead and destroy Iran’s power plants, it might make Iran more extreme. As I was writing this, Iran’s parliament speaker declared: “Immediately after the power plants and infrastructure in our country are targeted, the critical infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and oil facilities throughout the region will be considered legitimate targets and will be destroyed in an irreversible manner, and the price of oil will remain high for a long time. And throw down what is in your right hand; it will swallow up what they have made.”

Speaking of hardliners, Israel killed Ali Larijani, Iran’s security chief and its de facto leader for the past few weeks since the assassination of the supreme leader. Haaretz did a complete profile on him just hours before his death, showcasing his ruthlessness as a leader and calling him a “Brilliant Philosopher” (yes, he has a PhD in philosophy). Many suggest his successor will be even harder-line. Another Irony? Israel killed Larijani, who was considered by the U.S. as the person they preferred to talk with inside Iran’s regime.

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Yesterday, Israel reported its biggest mass casualty incident since the beginning of the war, over 100 injured, after Iran attacked Dimona, the city that houses Israel’s nuclear facilities.

What I find surprising (not really, given what happened in Gaza) is that many Western and even Arab outlets are failing to report the death toll in Iran. The war has killed 1,444 people in Iran, including at least 204 children. In Israel, at least 18 were killed, 13 US soldiers across the region, and 21 were killed in the Gulf states. This shows again how the Gulf has been hit the hardest by Iran (Not Israel) during the last three weeks. For more, read my Unpacked article from last week detailing the Gulf’s losses in this war.

In Lebanon, the situation is only getting worse, with the death toll surpassing 1000 last week. There is still no end in sight, and Israel’s war-criminal PM still insists the goal of this war is creating the conditions for regime change in Iran.

In Gaza, the situation has not changed. The National Administration for Gaza (NCAG), created by the U.S., is on hold as the U.S. is busy with the war in Iran. However, The Telegraph recently reported that Hamas was recently given a disarmament proposal, requiring it to hand over all of its weapons and share maps of its tunnel network. I doubt any progress in Gaza with no ceasefire in Iran.

The world continues to ignore Israel’s actions in Gaza. Every day, it breaks the ceasefire once or twice (it just did while I was writing this article, killing 4 people).

There is no end in sight. And the Trump Admin is stuck. Iran can’t be defeated without boots on the ground, and I find it highly improbable for the U.S. to commit troops on the ground. So, unless Trump backs down, this could continue for months and months.

Not to end on a bad note, read this article by The Guardian from last week, which leaked Britain’s far-right leader Nigel Farage’s Cameo request videos. They are funny.

Last week, I predicted the Iran war would pull attention from Gaza. It did. Here’s what happened while the world looked away:

For the past several days, people in Gaza have seen a dramatic rise in food prices. Since the beginning of the war, Israel has closed all the borders with Gaza, stopping the flow of much-needed aid. This led the UN Relief Chief to warn of a ‘moment of grave peril.’

The closure of the border once again gave many of Gaza’s businessmen an opening to raise prices. While it would make sense to raise prices after several days of border closure, some of Gaza’s Oligarchy immediately raised the prices on the morning of Israel’s attacks on Iran. In a previous Unpacked article, I discussed in length how some of Gaza’s businessmen used famine to generate unprecedented levels of profit. Israel also carried out several airstrikes across Gaza, killing men, women, and children in another breach of the ceasefire agreement.

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But that is not it, Israel also used the moment to assert more control over the West Bank by putting more checkpoints between villages. It also closed Al-Aqsa Mosque for two weeks as Muslims are fasting during the holy month of Ramadan, making this closure the first of its kind since 1967.

Israel’s attacks also included many areas in Lebanon, and many are reporting about an imminent Israeli ground invasion of Southern Lebanon. So far, Israeli strikes on Lebanon have killed at least 634 people and injured 1,586 in less than 10 days of fighting.

Iran’s attacks on the Gulf have continued. It even called for port evacuations across the Gulf after the United States attacked Kharg’s Island, which is an important hub for Iran’s oil economy. The Guardian’s recent report warned that Oil could pass the 2008 record of $147.50 a barrel as a result of the war.

It is gutting to watch the world’s silence and inability to act against Israel’s illegal wars and crimes across the Middle East. Israel continues to act against all laws without facing any consequences. When will this end? One person who stood out was Spain’s PM, Pedro Sanchez, who recalled Spain’s ambassador in protest to the Iran war and Gaza’s genocide.

The American and Israeli goal of toppling the regime in Iran still seems far away from reality. That begs the question: When will this end? Trump, surely, has to end this soon, as the majority of Americans are not supportive of this war.

But the Israeli PM, on the other hand, is enjoying this moment that he aspired to accomplish for decades, in his own words. But he is not alone. The rest of Israel’s politicians are also supportive of this war, just like they are supportive of what happened in Gaza, just like they are supportive of Israel’s attacks across the Middle East. No one seems to admit it in Western spaces, but any new Israeli PM will continue Netanyahu’s approach.